2008 Election Cover-Ups

Democrat Train Wreck Dead Ahead

Is it civil war for the Dems? If Clinton Keeps Winning, the Democrat party is  Headed for a Disastrous, fight-worn finish ...

It’s true that Barack Obama currently has a narrow lead in delegates, while Hillary arguably has a slight edge when it comes to momentum. What also appears to be true is that the whole Democratic race is still only two steps away from becoming a train wreck that could derail the party’s chances of winning the Presidency in November:

• This year’s tight contest for the Democratic nomination is unusual in the modern era, but not unprecedented. In 1976, the Republicans faced a barnburner of their own when Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan went through all the primaries and into the convention in a close heat, with Ford ultimately prevailing 1187-1070.
• The Republicans avoided an all-out intra-party civil war (though they still lost the election) because their nominating process differed from the Democrats’ current one in two key respects. First, no matter how close the candidates remained in the popular vote, the process was designed so that someone had to win a majority of the delegates selected during the campaign. (There was no large bloc of super delegates to override the process.) Second, in their “wisdom,” the Republicans hadn’t unseated two of their largest state delegations, as the Democrats have done this year with Michigan and Florida, thus leaving their nomination in a state of protracted chaos.
• The first step toward Democratic bedlam could occur on March 4, when Texas and Ohio vote. Demographically, Ohio is made-to-order for Hillary Clinton, with a high percentage of working-class voters, older voters, a relatively low percentage of minorities, and the support of the incumbent governor’s organization. Texas is relatively better for Obama (the primary is more open to Independents and Obama can probably count on the student hotbed of Austin) — but not much so, because the high percentage of Latino voters could well tip the state to Clinton, as it did in California.
• If Clinton comes back to win those two states, the Democrats are in trouble. At that point, there are no further significant races until April 22, when Pennsylvania votes. If she’s successful on March 4, Clinton (with the help of the press) will bill the Pennsylvania contest as the ultimate face-off, the proverbial seventh game, even though she’ll still trail slightly in delegates, whether or not she wins.
• Again, Pennsylvania favors Clinton, with one of the highest percentage of elderly voters in the country, and a high proportion of working-class and Catholic voters. If she’s won Ohio, there’s no reason to think she can’t win the Keystone State, too — at which point civil war in the party will break out.
• Although Obama will likely still lead at the end of the primaries by around 100 to 200 delegates (not counting the super delegates), neither candidate will have enough to win. So both will need considerable support from those 796-or-so super delegates. Clinton will argue she won every large state, save Obama’s home; Obama will argue he won more states, total. Both will be correct.

Get The Full Scoop

The Phoenix.com

Civil War
By Steven Stark

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Our Take

There's hope for the GOP yet. If Hillary and Obama keep hammering on each other’s flaws, which are many, it saves us a helluva lot of work. Quite a fortunate turn of events for right-thinking citizens.